Wen's Research Group – Weather and Climate

周文教授

复旦大学特聘教授，博士生导师，大气与海洋科学系副系主任，兼任中国极地研究中心冰雪与气候变化研究所所长。2022年加入复旦前，曾为香港城市大学能源与环境学院终身教授。周文老师课题组的研究领域为极端天气与气候的机理及预测，包括气候动力学、极地气候变化、极端事件动力学、热带气旋、年代际预测、海气耦合动力学和人工智能在气候领域的应用等。 [个人简历]

周文老师的研究关注热带季节内振荡，以及不同类型的厄尔尼诺现象及其对气候的影响。我们的目标是了解东亚冬/夏季风的可变性和可预测性，并对亚太地区的气候变率和极端气候做检测和归因。我们还希望进一步了解亚太地区的洪水和干旱、寒潮和热浪、海平面上升和风暴潮等自然灾害，以及这些灾害与当前和未来不同气候情境下的驱动因素。

Researchgate; Google Scholar; Scopus; ORCID
联系： wen_zhou@fudan.edu.cn

近期研究亮点

Fudan University Polar Visualization and Forecasting Platform

A visualization-based operational platform built on Version 1.0 of the seamless dynamical forecasting system for the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

The platform provides polar-region forecasts at a spatial resolution of 3-10 km, with forecast lead times ranging from short-term to medium- and long-term scales.

Next Steps: Building an Intelligent Forecasting Platform for Extreme Polar Weather and Environmental Events

Shifting hotspot of tropical cyclone clusters in a warming climate by Zheng-Hang Fu et al. (2025) 发表于 Nature Climate Change

Multiple tropical cyclones can be present concurrently within one ocean basin, and these clusters can induce compound hazards within a short time window. While the western North Pacific has historically been home to most tropical cyclone clusters, how climate change might affect this is unclear. Here we use observations and high-resolution climate model simulations to develop a probabilistic model, assuming that tropical cyclones are mutually independent and occur randomly. Against this baseline, we identify outliers as clusters with dynamic interactions between tropical cyclones. We find that the recent global warming pattern induces major shifts in tropical cyclone cluster hotspots from the western North Pacific to the North Atlantic by modulating tropical cyclone frequency and synoptic-scale wave activity. Our probabilistic modelling indicates a tenfold increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone cluster frequency in the North Atlantic, surpassing that in the western North Pacific, from 1.4 ± 0.4% to 14.3 ± 1.2% over the past 46 years.

Dynamic pathway linking Pakistan flooding to East Asian heatwaves by Zheng-Hang Fu et al. (2024) 发表于 Science Advances

封面文章发表于 Science Advances:

2022年10月航拍鄱阳湖附近的干裂河床。那一年，这个区域遭受了破纪录干旱，并从7月持续到了10月。利用观测和一套模式试验， Fu et al. 表明该干旱由巴基斯坦的破纪录降水激发。理解巴基斯坦洪水和东亚热浪与干旱之间的动力途径有助于提高东亚地区极端事件的次季节预报能力。

本研究中，我们发现相隔万里之遥的巴基斯坦洪水和东亚热浪可以通过大气遥相关连接起来。巴基斯坦就像一个”最佳激发点“，这里的洪水可以扰动西风急流，并导致下游东亚地区的持续热浪。

Schematic diagram for the QBO-SST impacting East Asia Summer Precipitation (Fig. 5a in Zhang et al. 2024 Nature Communications)

东亚夏季旱涝的平流层前兆： Ruhua Zhang et al. (2024) 发表于 Nature Communications

亚洲季风是世界上最活跃的季风系统之一，季风降水的变化往往会导致包括干旱和洪水在内的灾难性天气和气候事件，如2020年的长江洪水。以往的研究从海洋-大气、陆地-大气过程和对流层动力学的角度探讨了东亚干旱和洪水的原因。然而，对中上层大气的关注却较少。这项研究表明，在夏季季节性预报中使用热带中高层大气有很好的前景。